Research
Job Market Paper
Economic Efficiency and Sectoral Dynamics:
The Macroeconomic Impact of Markup-Reducing Antitrust Policies
Abstract
This paper develops an IO–New Keynesian DSGE model to quantify how upstream antitrust that compresses markups propagates through production networks. I embed a structural antitrust shock to the Dixit–Stiglitz elasticity in a parsimonious two-sector IO–Rotemberg model, map the shock into the log-markup gap used in the NK Phillips curves, and calibrate the model to standard macro and BEA moments. Using Dynare’s perfect-foresight solver I report deterministic IRFs to a one-off permanent antitrust impulse and complement them with comparative steady-state calculations. The results show a permanent reduction in upstream markups produces immediate sectoral disinflation and a modest short-run contraction in downstream output and consumption, while monetary easing and lower intermediate costs gradually reverse the hit and raise downstream activity and consumption in the new steady state. Quantitatively, the path and welfare implications depend on markup persistence, IO shares, and policy responsiveness. The paper highlights that antitrust can yield lasting real gains via cost pass-through, but policymakers must weigh short-run distributional demand effects and the interaction with monetary policy.
Working Papers
Tax Cuts, Sectoral Dynamics, and Income Inequality:
A Hybrid Input-Output New-Keynesian DSGE Analysis of the TCJA
Abstract
I develop a hybrid Input–Output New–Keynesian DSGE model to evaluate U.S. sectoral corporate taxation, real output dynamics, and household income inequality under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Using BEA industry-by-industry tables and IRS SOI data, I compare value-added– and output-based tax measures and show that the value-added approach yields more accurate sectoral burdens. Calibrating pre-and post-TCJA rates (from 35% to 21%), I trace heterogeneous sectoral responses; high-linkage industries experience larger output gains and tax-payment declines. Embedding heterogeneous households, I quantify how sectoral tax cuts propagate through wages and dividends to alter the cross-household income distribution. The results highlight the importance of network structure for both fiscal incidence and inequality.
Green Input-Output Analysis for Industrial Policy:
A Sectoral Approach to Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy
Abstract
This research explores how integrating Green Input-Output (IO) analysis with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model can enhance industrial policy design to decarbonize the U.S. economy. By analyzing intersectoral linkages, the study identifies key industries contributing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and evaluates how sector-specific taxes and subsidies can achieve an optimal balance between economic efficiency and environmental goals. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Environmental Protection Agency’s USEEIO model, the research links IO tables with CGE modeling to trace emissions not only from direct activities but also from indirect contributions across supply chains. This integration enables dynamic simulations of how industries respond to carbon pricing and other policy interventions based on sector-specific elasticities. By recognizing differences in emissions intensity and economic responsiveness, it proposes strategies to minimize economic disruption, and promote sustainable growth, while maintaining industrial competitiveness.
Modeling Currency Crises Under A Flexible Exchange Rate Regime
With Gabriel Mathy
Abstract
This paper develops a model of currency crises for economies operating under flexible exchange rates and demonstrates how the interaction of fiscal weakness, limited trade-response elasticities, and institutional fragility can produce reserve runs and abrupt currency collapses even as the exchange rate depreciates. The framework embeds a Taylor-rule monetary channel, an elasticities-constrained export/import specification, remittance and fixed foreign-debt servicing flows, and an explicit balance-of-payments closure that generates a crisis denouement when reserves fall below a threshold. Empirically, cross-country Taylor-rule estimates for Ghana, Brazil, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Turkey document wide heterogeneity in inflation responsiveness and reveal frequent failures of the Taylor principle in fragile settings. Calibrated simulations for Ghana’s 2022 episode demonstrate that low trade elasticities, persistent primary deficits, and fixed foreign-currency obligations can exhaust FX buffers despite adjustments, producing sudden stops and sharp currency collapses. The model implies that exchange-rate flexibility alone is insufficient; it must be paired with credible anti-inflationary policy, fiscal consolidation, and disciplined external-debt management. The framework generalizes classical logics, based on pegged exchange rates, to contemporary floating regimes and provides a tool for assessing optimal policy mixes that prevent or mitigate modern currency crises.